Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving forces of construction carbon emissions in transitional regions: evidence from six provinces in Central China

This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns of construction carbon emissions in Central China (Anhui, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Hubei) under China's carbon peak and neutrality goals. Using certified construction data, NPP–VIIRS nighttime light data, energy statistics, and socioeconomic panel data from 2012 to 2025, we examine emission dynamics and spatial heterogeneity. Results show that total emissions reached 1.039 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent, with Shanxi accounting for over 20%. Spatial clustering exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with High–High clusters in Shanxi and northern Henan, and Low–Low clusters in southern Anhui, western Hubei, and northern Jiangxi. Geodetector results reveal that regional GDP and secondary industry output were dominant drivers, and their interactions with population and technology investment reached a maximum q‑statistic of 0.98. These findings support targeted low-carbon policies for the construction sector in transitional regions.