Policy choices under military rule: a comparative analysis of developmental divergence in South Korea and Myanmar

Introduction This study examines the divergent economic trajectories of South Korea and Myanmar following military coups in the early 1960s. Despite similar starting points under authoritarian rule, the two regimes adopted fundamentally different economic strategies, resulting in contrasting developmental outcomes. Methods Drawing on a comparative political economy framework and Peter Evans' concept of the developmental state, the study employs a mixed-methods approach combining historical institutional analysis with Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation using World Bank and Maddison Project data (1955–1985). Results The DiD analysis indicates that South Korea experienced a statistically significant post-1962 treatment effect of approximately $620 in GDP per capita relative to Myanmar, alongside substantially higher urbanization growth. These findings demonstrate that export-oriented industrialization under a developmental state framework generated markedly stronger economic transformation. Discussion The results suggest that military regimes are not economically deterministic; rather, developmental outcomes depend on institutional capacity, leadership orientation, and strategic policy choices. The study contributes to debates on authoritarian development by highlighting the interaction between domestic institutions and geopolitical context.