An Analysis of the Structural Traits and Drivers of Virtual Land Trade Networks Within the G20 Countries

With the deepening of international trade and the increasing shortage of land resources, the importance of virtual soil trade in grain has become increasingly prominent. Based on FAO data, this study constructs the virtual soil trade network of wheat, rice, corn and soybean in the major G20 grain trading countries in 2013 and 2023, measures its network characteristics, and uses the exponential random graph model to explore its influencing factors from three dimensions of economic scale, geographical characteristics and resource endowment. The results show that: (1) virtual land trade is essentially a redistribution mechanism of land use pressure, rather than a simple grain flow; (2) the formation of network is driven by exogenous economic factors and endogenous relations; and (3) the role of each country in the network varies with the grain and food category and the development stage, showing a systematic differentiation. It is suggested that the allocation of land resources should be optimized according to the differences in virtual land flows in different countries and food categories. Since the export of virtual land is accompanied by ecological costs (such as deforestation, soil degradation, and water consumption), sustainability must be integrated into trade policies. Rations involve national security strategy, and it is necessary to strengthen domestic productivity and strategic reserves. Feed grain can use the market mechanism to promote trade liberalization and diversification, and reduce the risk of supply chain concentration while giving full play to the global comparative advantage.