Coherent Sea Level Variability Between the Sicily Channel and the Ionian Sea: Evidence of a Dynamical Coupling in the Mediterranean Sea

This study uses satellite altimeter data from the new AVISO dataset to investigate the coupling between sea level variability in the Sicily Channel and the Ionian Sea. The dataset spans the last three decades (1993–2024) and provides high spatial resolution coverage of the Mediterranean Sea (1/16°, or approximately 7 km). We analyze the variability of the sea surface height through Empirical Orthogonal Function and Singular Value Decomposition techniques applied to the Absolute Dynamic Topography. While the dominant modes of long-term variability reflect the known dynamics of the North Ionian Gyre, the singular value analysis allows us to identify a coherent spatial structure extending from the Sicily Channel to the Northern Ionian Sea. This provides the first observation-based, robust evidence of a dynamical coupling between the two basins, indicating that in the last thirty years the Northern Ionian Gyre is part of a broader, dynamically connected regional system integrating flows from the Sicily Channel. These findings are consistent with previous work, based on a hindcast simulation covering 1980–2010, in which we highlighted the key role of the Atlantic Ionian Stream in shaping interannual to decadal variability in the Northern Ionian Sea. Here, we extend the analysis to the present day, providing the most up-to-date, observation-based assessment of the regional dynamics.