Climate, environmental, and programmatic correlates of malaria resurgence in Amhara, Ethiopia (2018–2024): a Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis
Malaria resurgence in Amhara (2018-2024) occurred alongside strong spatial climatic and elevational gradients and was not consistent with a temporal warming-driven explanation at the regional scale. Remaining unexplained spatiotemporal variation highlights the likely importance of unmeasured drivers (e.g., conflict-related service disruption, vector/insecticide resistance dynamics, and population mobility). Climate-informed, spatially targeted intervention packages prioritizing districts with persistently high residual risk are warranted.
Authors
- Kassahun Alemu Gelaye (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4647-5178)
- Mulusew Andualem Asemahagn (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0345-9437)
- Hailemariam Awoke Engedaw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5885-2252)
- Muluken Azage (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3222-0158)
- Mastewal Worku Lake
- Kindie Fentahun Muchie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9975-7948)
- Teshager Zerihun Nigussie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7561-2763)
Institutions
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- University Hospital Heidelberg (DE)
- Amhara Agricultural Research Institute (ET)
- Debre Tabor University (ET)
- Bahir Dar University (ET)
- University of Gondar (ET)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Malaria Journal
- Published
- 2026-03-04
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-026-05847-7
- Primary Topic
- Malaria Research and Control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00