The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Carbon Emission Intensity in Cities Along the Route in China

As China pursues its Dual Carbon Goals, understanding the environmental effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is of critical importance. Employing panel data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2003–2023, this study adopts a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to systematically assess the impact of the BRI on carbon emission intensity (CEI). The empirical results show that the BRI significantly reduces CEI in Chinese cities along its corridors, a finding that proves robust across multiple robustness checks and after addressing potential endogeneity concerns. Mechanism analysis reveals that the BRI reduces CEI by promoting industrial structure optimization, lowering energy intensity, and alleviating market fragmentation. Moderating effect tests indicate that government intervention strengthens the CEI reduction effect of the BRI. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the CEI reduction effect is more pronounced in central-western cities, key environmental protection cities, old industrial base cities, and non-logistics hub cities.