Numerical Simulation of Rainfall-Induced Debris Flows Triggered by Cyclone Yaku 2023 in Chasquitambo, Peru

Debris flows are rapid downslope movements of soil and rock (a type of external geodynamic process) typically triggered by extreme rainfall, posing significant threats to infrastructure and human lives. The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between rainfall intensity and debris flow magnitude for different return periods (5, 10, 50, and 100 years) and, ultimately, to establish rainfall thresholds in Chasquitambo (Perú). This work presents numerical simulation results for extreme rainfall scenarios using the open-source software HEC-RAS v6.4.1 (Mud/Debris Flow mode), calibrated with flood marks from the recent extreme Cyclone Yaku event that occurred on 12 March 2023 (considered an approximately 100-year event). The simulations reveal a non-linear relationship between rainfall intensity and hazard, with the most extensive impacts reaching velocities of 4.5 m/s, depths of up to 7.0 m, and affecting an area of ~130,000 m2. The study indicates an operational rainfall threshold of 20 mm in 24 h, which is proposed to trigger monitoring protocols, early warning systems, and effective mitigation strategies. The proposed workflow provides a transferable and data-efficient foundation for deriving operational rainfall thresholds and scenario-based hazard metrics, which are useful for early warning systems and land-use planning in similar mountain catchments.