Brazil at the Geopolitical Crossroads: Democratic Institutions, Judicial Power, and the Realignment of International Relations in the Lula–Trump Era

Brazil is experiencing a defining moment in its political history—one in which domestic institutional tensions have been projected onto the global stage with unprecedented intensity. This paper examines three interlocking crises that collectively define the contemporary Brazilian predicament: The politicisation of the Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal, STF), whose increasingly interventionist posture—embodied principally by Justice Alexandre de Moraes—has blurred the line between judicial guardianship and political partisanship; The geopolitical realignment pursued by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose renewed embrace of the BRICS framework and deepening ties with China, Russia, and Iran have transformed a previously secondary bilateral relationship with the United States into a flashpoint of great-power rivalry; and The punitive response of the Trump administration, which imposed a 50 % tariff on Brazilian exports, sanctioned STF justices under the Global Magnitsky Act, and effectively redefined Brazil as an adversarial actor within its Latin American neighbourhood. Drawing on interdisciplinary sources—including international relations theory, democratic theory, and comparative constitutional law—the paper argues that Brazil’s ongoing crisis is not merely an episode of bilateral friction but a structural manifestation of the global transition to multipolarity, amplified by the ideological alignments of two mutually antagonistic governments. It further contends that the absence of a coherent “foreign-policy consciousness” among Brazilian political elites constitutes a systemic vulnerability whose costs are only beginning to materialize. The paper concludes by offering recommendations for a contain-and-engage diplomatic posture designed to preserve Brazil’s democratic institutions while reducing its exposure to external coercion and geopolitical isolation.