Quantitative evaluation of comprehensive risk of drought in Inner Mongolia grassland based on multi-source data

Under the dual impacts of global climate change and human activities, drought disasters in the Inner Mongolia grassland are a critical constraint on the high-quality development of animal husbandry. Based on disaster system theory, this study integrates multi-source grid data (meteorological observations, satellite remote sensing, land surface assimilation) to establish a comprehensive evaluation system covering the hazard of disaster-inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environments, vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and disaster prevention capacity. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for indicator weighting and GIS spatial analysis, we systematically revealed the spatial differentiation patterns of drought risk in the grassland. The results indicate: (1) Disaster-inducing hazard shows a "west-north high, east-south low" pattern, with high/relatively high-risk zones in western desert grasslands accounting for 28.8%. (2) Disaster-pregnant environment sensitivity is prominent in central-eastern typical grasslands, reflecting ecosystem-environment heterogeneity coupling. (3) Disaster-bearing body vulnerability decreases along hydrothermal gradients, with 39.1% of high-vulnerability areas concentrated in eastern meadow grasslands. (4) Disaster prevention capacity exhibits administrative center agglomeration, with high-capacity zones (28.9%) in league-city-banner-county seats contrasting sharply with low-capacity areas (50.2%) in remote pastures. (5) Integrated drought risk follows an "east high, west low" pattern: high-risk zones (11.5%) lie in Hulunbuir-Xilingol meadow grasslands, while relatively low-risk areas (27.8%) in Alxa-Ulanqab desert grasslands highlight the buffering effect of ecosystem drought adaptation. These findings provide spatial decision support for grassland drought risk management and practical significance for balancing ecological conservation and sustainable pastoral development. • Based on integrates multi-source grid data to build a comprehensive evaluation system. • this study reveals drought risk spatial differentiation in Inner Mongolia grasslands. • The hazard of disaster factors shows: "higher in west-north, lower in east-south". • Disaster-induced environmental sensitivity peaks in central-eastern steppes. • Supporting northern grassland drought management and balance ecological conservation.