Wave-induced losses in offshore floating PV: Physics-based modelling, sensitivity-driven quantification, surrogate-model prediction, and design-guided mitigation strategies

Offshore floating photovoltaics (OFPVs) emerge as a promising solution to overcome land constraints associated with inland renewable energy deployment. However, as OFPVs are still a developing technology, several performance-related uncertainties persist. The reduction in energy yield caused by wave-induced losses (WIL) is one such critical uncertainty that needs to be understood, quantified and minimized. To address this need, this work introduces a physics-based modelling framework that couples validated hydrodynamic simulations with opto-electrical analysis to accurately estimate WIL. An extensive sensitivity analysis is then carried out, performing over 100 simulations by systematically varying both design and environmental parameters. The results show that WIL ranges between 1%–30% on an hourly basis and exhibits a nonlinear dependence on both parameter groups. The resulting dataset is then used to develop SWIFT 1.0 - a surrogate model capable of predicting WIL across a wide range of design and operating conditions, achieving an average absolute RMSE of 3% relative to the physics-based model. The insights from SWIFT 1.0 are finally used to provide practical measures that minimise WIL at a system design level. Overall, this work provides a complete pathway to model, quantify, predict, and minimise WIL, promoting confident and scalable OFPV deployment. • A validated hydro–opto–electrical framework to model wave-induced losses (WIL). • 109 sensitivity simulations quantify WIL for various designs & operating conditions. • Elevated platforms show a WIL of 1.5%–4% compared to 2%–6% for pontoon based designs. • Developed a data-driven surrogate model - SWIFT 1.0 - with a 3% WIL prediction RMSE. • Proposed design-guided mitigation strategies to reduce WIL in offshore PV systems.