Influencing Factors of Building Embodied Carbon Based on System Dynamics

To achieve the “dual carbon” goals, the management and control of the construction sector’s embodied carbon is crucial, as it is a key field of carbon emissions. This study focuses on the entire process of building structural design, construction and procurement, and building material production and trading. Based on the principles of system dynamics, it constructs a building embodied carbon analysis model consisting of three subsystems: building structural design, production, and building material market. The core elements of each subsystem and their interaction relationships are clarified, and the model variables and parameters are defined. Through multi-scenario simulation analysis, the influence mechanisms of key factors such as different building heights, seismic influence coefficients, expected project costs, and carbon reduction policies on building embodied carbon are explored. The results show that building height and seismic influence coefficients have significant impacts on material consumption during the building structural design stage, with building height exerting a more prominent driving effect; increasing the prefabrication rate can improve construction efficiency, shorten the construction period, reduce construction carbon emissions, and simultaneously balance the current pressure of rising labor costs; and carbon reduction policies guide market demand, prompting low-carbon building material manufacturers to expand R&D investment and production capacity, forming a positive cycle of “demand growth—cost reduction—market expansion”. In contrast, conventional building materials are affected by tightened carbon quotas and rising carbon prices, leading to a continuous shrinkage of their market share and gradual withdrawal from the market, ultimately realizing overall carbon reduction in the industry. The system dynamics model constructed in this study provides a scientific analysis framework for the full-process management and control of building embodied carbon, reveals the key influencing factors and evolution laws, and offers theoretical support and practical reference for the precise management and control of building embodied carbon and the formulation of carbon reduction pathways.