Optimization of Gas Production Using Machine Learning Modeling of Geological Core Facies and Monte Carlo Simulation: Application in the Permian, Southwest Kansas

The Panoma Field in the Hugoton Embayment, Kansas, has produced significant gas resources from thousands of wells perforating the Permian Chase and Council Grove Groups. Variability in gas production from these formations is controlled by facies-influenced petrophysical properties. The use of geological facies data in numerical modeling is often limited to delineating regions of interest without intrinsic use in estimating petrophysical properties. Machine learning provides opportunities to integrate facies data into the numerical model-building process. In this study, we employ facies data in optimizing a numerical model permeability matrix scaling parameter using Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov Switching Dynamic Regression and machine learning. Realizations of the scaling parameter are included in a machine learning facies prediction workflow to identify the parameter that maximizes facies prediction accuracy, with test accuracy as high as 83%. A 3D numerical model was constructed to represent the interlayered carbonate, shale, and non-marine sandstones facies typical of the Council Grove intervals. Multiple field development and completion scenarios were evaluated to maximize cumulative gas recovery and assess the role of facies distribution on reservoir performance. History matching results of historical gas production demonstrate strong coupling between facies distribution and the optimized permeability, emphasizing the importance of facies data integration in reservoir property modeling and gas production estimation in Permian reservoirs. This implies that probabilistically constrained permeability scaling using the Monte Carlo and machine learning workflow produces more realistic modeling compared to traditional approaches.