From passive survival to active development: an evolutionary thermal energy architecture for sustainable lunar bases

Establishing a permanent habitat on the Moon is a critical goal in the new era of space exploration, but it depends on overcoming extreme environmental challenges. The primary obstacle is the harsh lunar environment, characterized by prolonged nights, extremely low temperatures, and a lack of solar energy during the night. While solutions such as passive thermal insulation/heat storage structures, radioisotope heaters, in situ solar thermal storage, and nuclear fission reactors are being investigated, they are often assessed in isolation, without a comprehensive long-term developmental framework. Here, we conduct a trade-off analysis of key technologies via a multi-dimensional quantitative evaluation system and propose an evolutionary framework that combines these diverse technological pathways with a phased development blueprint for the lunar base. Our analysis matches the distinct capabilities and limitations of each technology with the evolving requirements of a settlement, from short-term survival to long-term industrialization. This framework offers a potential strategic roadmap for sustainable lunar settlement, highlighting that the shift from passive survival to active development depends on a resilient, multi-source thermal energy architecture that evolves in alongside with the base.