Driving Mechanisms and Configuration Paths of High-Quality Development for High-Speed Rail Enterprises: A Complex Adaptive System Perspective and TOE Framework Analysis

By expanding the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework to match the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) characteristics of high-speed rail (HSR) enterprises, this study adopts fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) and Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) to investigate the driving mechanisms and configuration paths of high-quality development (HQD). Using data from 137 listed Chinese HSR concept companies during 2018–2023, the results reveal that HSR enterprises operate as CAS, where HQD emerges from the synergistic interaction of technology, organization, and environment subsystems rather than isolated factor contributions. Four equivalent configuration paths to HQD are identified, categorized into three models: Technology-Dominant, Dual-Driven Technology + Environment, and Multi-Collaborative Technology + Organization + Environment. Policy support is a necessary condition for system evolution, digital intelligence empowerment serves as the core “order parameter” driving subsystem adaptation, and high-quality human resources act as the key coordinating element for inter-subsystem coupling. The degree of subsystem synergy has a significant positive correlation with HQD levels. This study enriches the application of CAS theory in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, expands the TOE framework’s analytical boundary from linear dimension division to systematic synergy, and provides theoretical insights for understanding the nonlinear, emergent mechanisms of HSR enterprise HQD. It also offers practical references for governments to optimize policy supply and for enterprises to enhance adaptive capacity.