Transforming financial inclusion through digital finance: comparative foresight from Thailand and Vietnam

Purpose This study aims to reconceptualize digital financial inclusion as a dynamic, converging and inclusive transition rather than a static measure of access. Using comparative foresight evidence from Thailand and Vietnam, it investigates how digital finance, human capital and policy frameworks coevolve in shaping sustainable financial ecosystems. By analyzing post-pandemic and post-recovery data, the study seeks to identify distinct diffusion pathways and structural constraints influencing digital financial engagement. The purpose is to generate forward-looking insights for designing resilient, equitable and human-centered digital financial systems in emerging Southeast Asian economies. Design/methodology/approach The study employs a quantitative research design using two waves of microdata from the World Bank Global Findex Database (2021 / 2022 and 2024). Binary logistic regression is applied to examine the determinants of financial access and digital financial service usage. A comparative framework is adopted to evaluate Thailand’s bank-led digital evolution against Vietnam’s human capital–driven leapfrogging trajectory. The methodological approach integrates structural, behavioral and technological dimensions to generate forward-looking insights into the dynamics of digital financial transformation across both contexts. Findings The results reveal two divergent yet complementary pathways. Thailand has transitioned into a “post-access phase,” where account ownership is nearly universal, and the core challenges lie in improving service quality, efficiency and digital financial capability among vulnerable groups. Vietnam is in an “expansion and diffusion phase,” driven by younger cohorts and women who are increasingly bypassing traditional banking through mobile money. These trajectories illustrate a “converging inclusive digital transition,” reflecting the interplay of technological infrastructure, human capital and policy design in driving digital financial inclusion. Research limitations/implications The analysis relies on cross-sectional survey data, which limits causal inference and the ability to track individual behavioral trajectories over time. Country-level institutional nuances and policy interventions may not be fully captured through microdata alone. Nevertheless, the findings highlight structural and behavioral determinants that warrant deeper longitudinal and qualitative exploration. The study highlights the importance of future research examining the dynamic interplay between digital capability, human capital and institutional design in shaping inclusive financial ecosystems across emerging economies. Practical implications The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to strengthen digital financial inclusion. Thailand should prioritize enhancing digital capability among older adults and low-income populations while improving the quality and trustworthiness of digital services. Vietnam should continue leveraging its strong human capital base by expanding Mobile Money infrastructure and reducing access barriers for underserved groups. Both countries can benefit from integrating digital finance into broader development strategies, ensuring that technology diffusion aligns with human-centered financial empowerment. Social implications Digital finance holds transformative potential for reducing exclusion and enabling equitable participation in the economy. In Thailand, empowering marginalized groups through deeper engagement with financial services can enhance social mobility and resilience. In Vietnam, ensuring quality and sustainable usage can improve household security and well-being. Comparative insights demonstrate that inclusion is shaped not only by technology but also by cultural, behavioral and social contexts, underscoring the importance of tailored interventions. Originality/value This study delivers one of the earliest cross-country foresight analyses of digital financial inclusion in Thailand and Vietnam using post-pandemic Global Findex data. It introduces the concept of a converging inclusive digital transition, offering a forward-looking lens that integrates human capital, technology diffusion and institutional design. By moving beyond single-country approaches, the study contributes original theoretical insight and regionally relevant policy guidance. Its comparative framework advances understanding of how emerging ASEAN economies may chart inclusive digital futures, positioning digital finance as a transformative structural driver of economic participation and social equity.