Heterogeneity and trend of household energy structure variation between urban and rural residents

Based on time-series data of household energy consumption in urban and rural China from 1985 to 2021, this study reveals a remarkable shift: urban areas transitioned their energy infrastructure earlier than rural areas, with both shifting from coal dominance to modern energy sources. However, energy use varied between urban and rural areas, with urbanites also utilizing heating services and rural residents relying on crop straw, firewood, animal dung, biogas, and solar energy. Per capita annual energy consumption rose from 286 to 426.4 kgce in urban areas and from 363.8 to 598.1 kgce in rural areas from 1985 to 2021. Furthermore, based on the theoretical mechanisms of energy consumption changes, we selected multiple models to forecast future consumption of various energy fuels in both urban and rural areas up to 2031. Predictions indicate urban consumption will reach 539.3 kgce by 2031, with limited structural changes. Coal and oil use are expected to decrease. Electricity and gaseous fuel consumption will remain stable. Rural consumption is forecasted to reach 767.6 kgce by 2031, with solid fuel still accounting for nearly 15% of total use. Policies designed to facilitate the energy transition to foster a sustainable, clean, and efficient energy supply system, and implement targeted policies for energy management according to regional differences.