Assessing Multiple-Year Climate Variability Impacts on Coconut Production and Price in Sri Lanka

The assessment of climate variability impacts on crop production and price varies by what factors studies consider, including annuals and perennials. Unlike annual crops, climate impacts on perennial crops like coconuts require a multiple-year assessment. Although previous studies have examined climate effects on coconut production, there is a critical gap in understanding multiple-year impacts of climate variability on coconut production and price. Therefore, this paper aims to fill this gap by assessing the extent to which climate variability affects coconut production and prices in Sri Lanka, the fourth largest coconut producer in the world. For this purpose, we analyzed rainfall, temperature, average drought months, coconut production, coconut cultivation area, and coconut retail price from 2010 to 2022. We then created and administered five regression models to illustrate the impact of climate variables for a single year and multiple years on coconut production, yield, and price. The results indicate that rainfall in the previous year is the most critical determinant for production (p = 0.014) and yield (p = 0.032), while drought intensity and temperature shocks show delayed negative effects on production. Lagged temperature shocks and supply shortages significantly increased nominal coconut retail prices. A temperature increase by 1 °C in the previous year raised prices by approximately LKR 36 per nut. After adjusting for inflation, only temperature (p = 0.002) effects was found significant, indicating that climate-induced supply constraints dominate real price changes. Our three-year analysis showed that drought conditions, together with rainfall and temperature variability, reduced production with a delayed effect (p = 0.026). These findings highlight the importance of incorporating multiple-year climate impacts into adaptation and price stabilization policies for coconut and other perennial crops.