Event Patterns Enhancing Causal Reasoning Method Incorporating Category Theory for Stored Grain Pests

Outbreaks of stored grain pests can pose significant threats to food security. In-depth analyses of sudden outbreaks are key to achieving effective prevention and control. To address the issue of models’ insufficient reasoning capability arising from complex causal relationships in stored grain pest events, this study proposes an Event Patterns Enhancing Causal Reasoning (EPECR) method incorporating category theory. Specifically, we focus on common pests such as Sitophilus zeamais (maize weevil) and Sitotroga cerealella (Angoumois grain moth). We formally map the domain ontology—including entities like environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity) and control measures (e.g., fumigation)—to categories, and represent their inter-relationships (e.g., inhibition, promotion) as functors. To handle complex scenarios, we model multi-cause events (e.g., high temperature and humidity jointly accelerating pest reproduction) using functor products, and represent multi-hop events (e.g., environmental changes leading to pest outbreak and subsequent grain loss) through functor compositions. This formal expression enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract reliable event patterns. Based on these patterns, this study constructed 1440 structured datasets and adopted the Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) strategy to fine-tune the LLMs. Experiments on the domain-specific Stored Grain Pest Events Dataset (SGPE) demonstrate that EPECR achieves a reasoning accuracy of 85.9% on in-distribution data and 79.9% on out-of-distribution data, effectively identifying correct causal chains for pest logic. This method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art domain method-Naive Augmentations (NA)-by 4.9%, providing precise decision support for the early warning and control of specific pest incidents.