Forest Aboveground Carbon Storage in the Three Parallel Rivers Region: A Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Perspective

Accurate estimation of forest aboveground carbon (AGC) is crucial for understanding the carbon cycle and formulating climate policies, yet it remains challenging in complex mountainous regions. This study used machine learning framework to estimate the spatiotemporal dynamics of AGC in the Three Parallel Rivers region of China from 2003 to 2024. By integrating China’s National Forest Continuous Inventory (NFCI) data with multispectral satellite imagery, we employed a two-stage feature selection strategy to identify key predictor variables. Among three ensemble algorithms tested, the Random Forest model achieved the optimal performance (R2 = 0.74). The results indicated a net increase of 67.05 Tg in total AGC over the two decades, with a spatial pattern characterized by higher densities in the west and north. Geographical Detector analysis revealed that the driving forces were synergistic, with the interaction between temperature and population density exhibiting the most prominent explanatory capacity. This study provides a high-resolution (30 m) benchmark for AGC in a global biodiversity hotspot and underscores the critical role of ecological protection policies in enhancing carbon sequestration, offering valuable insights for managing similar mountain ecosystems worldwide.