Predicting Early Antenatal Care Attendance among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Women: A Predictive Modelling Approach to Strengthen Health Equity

Abstract—Early Antenatal Care (ANC) attendance—defined as the first visit during the first trimester of pregnancy —is critical for achieving positive maternal and neonatal outcomes. Despite universal healthcare coverage in Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women continue to experience delayed ANC initiation due to structural, geographic, and cultural inequities. This study applies a predictive modelling approach to identify factors influencing early ANC attendance, aiming to strengthen health equity through data-driven insights. Preliminary findings show that remoteness, socioeconomic disadvantage, and jurisdictional variation are the most influential predictors of delayed ANC attendance among the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women. Women in very remote areas with limited culturally safe services are at the highest risk of late engagement. The model demonstrates strong predictive accuracy and interpretability, enabling identification of priority populations for targeted interventions. Predictive modelling can inform equitable, culturally grounded clinical and policy responses to improve maternal health outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women. Keywords—prediction, model, health, data, styling, aboriginal