A bibliometric and scientometric assessment of tariff and trade war research from 1928 to the present

Academic research on tariffs and trade wars has evolved substantially, yet the literature remains fragmented, leaving scholars and practitioners without a unified understanding of the research landscape. This study addresses the challenge of synthesizing nearly a century of scholarship (1928–2025) to identify thematic gaps and intellectual structures that have emerged, particularly following the post-2018 surge in global trade tensions. Understanding these patterns is critical as unilateral trade policies increasingly disrupt global value chains and geopolitical stability. Applying a mixed-method approach, this study analyses 756 Scopus-indexed documents using bibliometric techniques, Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency scoring, N-gram extraction, clustering algorithms, and the Theory, Context, Characteristics, and Methodology framework. Findings reveal a heavy concentration on the U.S.–China rivalry and a reliance on econometric modelling, which has left regions like Africa and Latin America, and sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, significantly underexplored. To address these gaps, we recommend that future research adopt “methodological pluralism”—incorporating agent-based modelling and network analytics—and expand geographic and sectoral focus to include emerging economies and high-tech industries. By providing a structured roadmap for interdisciplinary and inclusive research, this study helps society move toward more resilient global trade governance and informed policymaking, ultimately mitigating the adverse economic impacts of future trade conflicts.