Comparative Analysis of Risks Identified in Scientific Research, Strategic Documents, and Media Publications in Bulgaria

The acceleration of economic, technological, geopolitical and environmental processes has significantly increased the exposure of national economies to interconnected financial and non-financial risks. While global financial risks and corporate risks have been extensively analyzed, significant national risks—such as fiscal sustainability, debt vulnerability, systemic inefficiency and investment uncertainty—are often treated fragmentarily or descriptively within conventional sovereign risk frameworks. This article offers a comparative analytical approach to identifying national financial and non-financial risks by examining the degree of convergence and divergence between risks identified in four different sources: national expert scientific studies, World Economic Forum global risk assessments, strategic development documents of Bulgaria and national media coverage. Using expert data, structured content analysis, a modified media visibility index, and nonparametric statistical tests for linked binary data, the study identifies risks that are consistently recognized across sources and therefore pose an increased threat to financial stability, as well as risks that remain systematically underestimated despite their potential fiscal and macroeconomic consequences. The results show that cross-source comparison significantly improves the detection of national risks and reveals blind spots in fiscal planning, investment, and social policy. This article contributes to the literature on the management of risks with a direct negative financial effect or with an indirect financial impact on the national economy by positioning national risk identification within a governance-oriented, multi-source analytical framework.