AIS-Based Recognition of Typhoon-Related Ship Responses: A Dual-Behavior Framework

Typhoon avoidance is critical for ship maneuvering safety under extreme meteo-ocean conditions. This study proposes a data-driven framework that converts AIS trajectories into interpretable course deviation and speed change responses for navigational decision support. After AIS cleaning, temporal resampling, and matching with gridded wind, wave, and current fields, rule-based sliding-window and regression procedures, informed by experienced captains and company staff, automatically generate proxy labels for deviation and speed reduction. Samples are stratified by vessel size to reflect differences in inertia and maneuverability, and XGBoost classifiers are trained with simple resampling to mitigate class imbalance. The framework is demonstrated on a single-event case study of Typhoon Yagi in the South China Sea, covering 8609 vessels and reconstructed sailing fragments. On the test set, the deviation model achieves 89.8% accuracy and high recall for deviation cases, while the speed change model reaches 82% balanced accuracy under the proxy-label setting. Results suggest a scale-dependent response: smaller vessels exhibit more frequent course deviation, whereas larger vessels more often reduce speed under severe wind-wave loading. The framework offers a proof-of-concept approach to derive behavior-based indicators from AIS and environmental data and may support situational assessment under adverse weather.