Mapping Heat Stress and Evaporative Cooling Potentials in South European Cities: Humidity Constraints and Water-Based Cooling Opportunities

Climate change is driven by global-scale warming, while cities additionally experience local amplification due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect (urban–rural temperature differences caused by urban form, materials, and reduced evapotranspiration). In this study, we address both dimensions by analyzing long-term near-surface climate variables and derived heat-exposure indicators for multiple South European cities and by translating climate signals into climate-suitability indicators for passive/evaporative cooling. In this study, heat-stress-relevant indicators and evaporative/adiabatic cooling opportunity across paired coastal and inland South European cities are quantified using long-term hourly reanalysis and scenario-based future projections. This paper compares coastal and inland city pairs from three regions: Nicosia and Limassol from Cyprus, Seville and Lisbon on the Iberian Peninsula, and Niš and Thessaloniki on the Balkans, to characterize recent heat stress and the prospective applications and limits of adiabatic cooling. ERA5/ERA5-Land variables from the Copernicus Climate Data Base, focusing on 2 m air temperature, 2 m dew point/relative humidity, and derived indicators: days above heat thresholds and “tropical nights”, were used to determine the differences between the local climate and compare severity of effects of global warming with respect to the specific climatic conditions of the chosen cities. Application of evaporative cooling was then tested with projections up to 2050 using Climate Consultant software, using regional temperature and humidity differences to explore comfort shifts and passive cooling applicability envelopes. Cross-city comparison of climate-suitability hours and cooling needs is included in the analysis. The novelty is a paired coastal–inland, multi-region South European design (Cyprus, Iberia, and Balkans) that combines long-term hourly reanalysis (1950–2025), scenario-based mid-century morphing, and a standardized psychrometric/adaptive-comfort framework to translate climate signals into comparable climate-suitability indicators for evaporative/adiabatic cooling across contrasting humidity regimes. The results provide planning direction by indicating that humid coastal cities should prioritize shading, reduced radiant load, ventilation/urban porosity and humidity-aware cooling, while hotter and drier inland cities retain a wider climatic window for evaporative cooling, subject to water-availability constraints.