Adolescents Experiencing Both Bullying and Childhood Trauma: Longitudinal Patterns, Psychosocial Networks, and Risk Prediction

Adolescents who experience both bullying at school and maltreatment within families are at heightened risk for psychological harm, yet little is known about how these dual adversities co-develop and influence psychosocial functioning over time. This three-wave longitudinal study followed 1,246 middle school students in central China to identify joint trajectories of bullying victimization and childhood trauma, examine their psychosocial network characteristics, and predict high-risk membership. Using KmL3D clustering, three distinct developmental trajectories were identified: (a) lower dual trauma declining, (b) high childhood trauma fluctuating, and (c) higher dual trauma declining. Network analyses revealed that protective ties among teacher-student relationships, peer attachment, gratitude, sense of control, and emotional regulation self-efficacy were strongest in the low-risk group but progressively weakened under chronic adversity, while depression and psychache became central nodes of vulnerability. To predict trajectory membership, six machine learning models were tested; the Random Forest model achieved the highest accuracy (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve [AUC] = 0.97), highlighting emotional distress and poor peer attachment as dominant early warning indicators. Findings underscore that poly-victimization trajectories are heterogeneous and embedded in distinct psychosocial systems. Early identification of emotional pain and relational deficits, combined with trauma-informed, school-based interventions, may help prevent re-victimization and long-term psychological harm among adolescents facing dual adversity.