Forming adaptive management mechanisms for field development projects with highly complex geological parameters

This study analyzes the challenges of project management in the oil and gas industry under conditions of high geological variability, typical of hard-to-recover reserves (HTR) development. It is argued that the dominance of traditional hierarchical management schemes based on linear Waterfall logic limits the ability of HTR projects to adequately respond to the variability of geological and technological assumptions and environmental volatility. A transition to adaptive and hybrid management mechanisms (Agile-Waterfall) is considered a conceptually more effective approach. These mechanisms combine the regulatory discipline of capital-intensive programs with iterative decision adjustments based on current data, rapid validation of hypotheses, and continuous refinement of development models. It is emphasized that such approaches create conditions for reducing management lags between the emergence of new reservoir information and changes to design parameters, ensuring a more resilient planning configuration in a high-risk environment. The empirical part of the study draws on professional experience and analysis of practices in implementing a digital twin of an oil and gas condensate asset as a tool for increasing process observability, coordinating interdisciplinary decisions, and formalizing scenario management.