Disparities in the impacts of extreme heat events on subway ridership in New York City

Recent record-breaking heatwaves have posed serious health risks and significantly altered travel demand, mode choice, and behavior. These disruptions highlight the urgent need to incorporate heat mitigation strategies into transit planning. This study examines changes in New York City subway ridership during extreme heat events (EHEs), using turnstile data from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority for the warm seasons (May to September) between 2022 and 2024. We analyze shifts in diurnal travel patterns and examine the experiences of vulnerable populations, including low-income individuals, seniors, and people with disabilities. Using Welch’s t-test with Benjamini-Hochberg correction, we compare ridership fluctuations between EHE and non-EHE periods. To contextualize these changes and support actionable recommendations, we also assess the influence of the built environment and socioeconomic factors. The findings reveal that EHEs have a more pronounced negative impact on weekends, with the most significant declines observed among seniors and passengers with disabilities. Ridership among low-income individuals shows minimal variation, though time-specific differences are evident. Peripheral stations are less affected overall, but station attributes and demographics contribute to variations. This study provides a foundation for developing inclusive, heat-resilient transit systems and for enhancing emergency planning to better support vulnerable populations.