Unpacking CO2 emissions: the role of ICT, renewable energy and unemployment in high-income economies (1991–2021)

Purpose This study aims to examine the determinants of production-based CO2 emissions in 33 high-income countries over the period 1991–2021, with particular emphasis on the roles of information and communication technology (ICT), renewable energy use and unemployment. It re-evaluates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in advanced economies while accounting for trade openness, economic growth and population dynamics to capture short- and long-run emissions patterns. Design/methodology/approach This study uses second-generation panel econometric techniques on annual data for 33 high-income countries covering 1991–2021. To address cross-sectional dependence and non-stationarity, the common correlated effects estimator is used to capture short-run dynamics, while the fully modified ordinary least squares estimator is applied to identify long-run cointegrated relationships. The empirical framework incorporates interaction terms to examine conditional effects and includes robustness checks using alternative emissions accounting to assess the stability of the results. Findings The results indicate that ICT adoption reduces CO2 emissions in the short run, but its effect weakens over time as digital infrastructure expands energy demand. Renewable energy consistently mitigates emissions, though long-run gains are constrained by structural limitations. Unemployment temporarily lowers emissions in the short run but shows no persistent long-run effect. Trade openness increases emissions initially, while its long-run impact weakens. Population growth persistently raises emissions. Overall, support for the EKC is limited, with no stable long-run income-driven turning point. Originality/value This study offers one of the first integrated assessments of ICT, renewable energy, trade, unemployment and demographic factors in shaping CO2 emissions across high-income economies using advanced panel econometric methods. It highlights the emissions-mitigating role of ICT alongside its diminishing effectiveness over time, the structural limits of renewable energy adoption under grid rigidity and the partial validity of the EKC under conditions of carbon leakage. By uncovering weakening growth–trade synergies and unrealized ICT–renewable complementarities, the study advances debates on carbon lock-ins and decarbonization pathways in advanced economies.