Radio access network carbon footprint in France: historical trend and prospective scenarios

Abstract While the ITU has set ambitious CO2eq reduction targets for the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector, it is of upmost importance to estimate the carbon footprint of mobile networks at the country level. Indeed, mobile networks drive the dynamics of the sector, and several policies are implemented at the national level to stick to a decarbonization trajectory. In this paper, we adopt a bottom-up approach to estimate the carbon footprint of the Radio Access Network (RAN) in France based on public data sets, well-accepted models, and realistic figures. We show that the French mobile networks have been characterized by an almost constant growth in terms of the number of equipment, energy consumption, and carbon footprint since 2015. With our assumptions, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the total carbon footprint is estimated to be $$+13$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>13</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> % for the period 2015–2024. The CAGR would decelerate between $$+1$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> % and $$+3.4$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>3.4</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> % for the period 2024–2030 due to the combined effect of energy efficiency gains and decarbonization of the electric mix. In order to enlighten the public debate, we test the hypothesis of faster energy efficiency gains, technology modernization, higher network sharing, longer equipment lifetime, and sobriety measures for the 2030 horizon. With our assumptions, we show that ITU objectives can only be achieved when all positive effects are combined and drastic measures are taken.