Prediction Model for Lightning-Ignited Fire Occurrence Across Different Vegetation Types

Lightning is a major natural ignition source of wildfires across forest, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. Accurate prediction of lightning-ignited fire occurrence remains challenging due to uncertainties in spatiotemporal alignment caused by vegetation-dependent smoldering delays and the difficulty of representing heterogeneous fuel conditions in mixed-vegetation regions. This study proposes a semi-automated lightning–fire alignment framework that integrates land cover information and historical fire records to improve spatiotemporal matching across different vegetation types and to reduce misclassification from human-induced fires in agricultural areas. To better characterize fuel conditions, two feature-level vegetation fusion parameters—total vegetation cover and leaf area index weight—are introduced and combined with hourly meteorological variables and lightning characteristics to develop a tuned random forest prediction model. The framework is applied at a regional scale in the Greater Khingan Mountains and southwestern forest regions of China, with predictions conducted at an event-based temporal scale using hourly inputs. The vegetation-fused model achieves an AUC of 0.93, outperforming models without vegetation fusion. Analysis of model outputs indicates that hourly maximum temperature, leaf area index weight, precipitation, and wind speed are key factors influencing lightning-ignited fire occurrence. This study demonstrates the value of semi-automated alignment and vegetation feature fusion for improving lightning-ignited fire prediction in heterogeneous landscapes, supporting regional wildfire risk assessment and potential early-warning applications.