Early Gains, Fading Effects: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Mathematical Thinking Workshops for the School-to-University Mathematics Transition in South Africa

This study evaluates whether theory-informed, mathematically focused support can ease the school-to-university transition in an unequal South African STEM context. First-year students could voluntarily attend Mathematical Thinking Workshops (MTWs) grounded in constructivism, the zone of proximal development, APOS theory, and cognitive load theory, providing low-threat, collaborative practice with non-routine, representation-rich tasks. Because attendance was self-selected, we used a quasi-experimental design: participation was modeled from pre-university covariates (school-leaving Mathematics and English grades and standardized university preparedness tests in Mathematics and Quantitative Literacy), and MTW participants were matched to comparable non-participants using nearest-neighbor propensity-score matching. Average treatment effects on the treated were estimated for multiple assessments and for a composite score capturing performance on higher-order items within those assessments. MTW participants outperformed matched peers on early first-semester assessments, especially those containing the most higher-order items, indicating that workshops helped when cognitively demanding tasks first appeared. Effects on later, more distal assessments were positive but attenuated, producing an “early gains, fading effects” pattern. Although estimates were imprecise, benefits appeared largest for students who had scored 70–84% in school-leaving mathematics. Overall, the findings suggest that transitional workshops can deliver timely, assessment-visible gains, although these effects may weaken over time when they are not reinforced or well aligned with later summative assessment.