Evolution and proximity analysis of oil and natural gas trade networks among the Belt and Road Initiative countries

Based on 2009–2018 BRI countries' oil and natural gas trade, this paper uses social network analysis to construct and compare the topological, spatial, and community structures of oil and gas trade networks. It extends the gravity model to analyze proximity effects in both networks. The findings are as follows: Both the oil and natural gas trade networks exhibited a trend toward densification. However, the oil trade network showed higher national participation, network cohesion, and trade accessibility. The spatial structure of the oil trade network is characterized by a “dual-core export and tri-core import” distribution, while the natural gas trade network is characterized by a “dual-core export and single-core import” distribution. Both networks displayed a significant “rich club” phenomenon. The oil trade network evolved into four major communities with stable spatial distribution, whereas the natural gas trade network evolved into six major communities with considerable changes in spatial distribution. Two networks exhibit vulnerability under deliberate attacks, but the oil trade network demonstrates higher robustness than the natural gas trade network. Both the oil and natural gas trade networks exhibited cultural and organizational proximity, but geographical proximity posed a barrier to the evolution of both networks. Economic and institutional proximity had different impacts on the oil and natural gas trade networks, with their influence directions being opposite. Based on the research findings, this study proposes a “DURC” policy framework centered on diversification, strategic alliances, institutionalized rules, and improved connectivity to foster the efficient, resilient, and sustainable evolution of oil and natural gas trade networks within the BRI region.