Land suitability analysis for sustainable cultivation of apple (Malus domestica) using integrated geospatial and multi-criteria modelling in Southwestern Ethiopia

Apple cultivation represents a sustainable livelihood strategy that enhances farmers’ income while contributing to environmental conservation. Apple production is highly constrained by winter chilling requirements, which are strongly influenced by altitude and local climate. This study assessed the spatial distribution of land suitability for apple cultivation in the study area using geospatial modeling techniques. Climatic, topographic, and environmental variables were integrated using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis to identify suitable zones for apple production. The results obtained from the evaluation of the suitability of the land for growing apple (Malus domestica) showed large variability in space. While 1.6% (112.5 km2) and 35.2% (2423.8 km2) were recorded as highly and moderately suitable areas respectively, 57.3% (3954.4 km2) ranked as marginally suitable. The remaining 5.9% (404.9 km2) is unsuitable because of factors consisting of high temperature, low chill intensity in winter, and soil characteristics. The highly suitable regions were largely dominated by Dabo Hana, Diga, and Bedele Zuriya in the mid and northwestern parts of the region, and the marginally suitable and unsuitable regions were largely dominated by Boricha and Gechi in the southern and Eastern districts, respectively. This indicates that apple production potential in the region is still limited and dependent on management interventions. Furthermore, the dominance of marginal suitability in the region shows that if apple production is extended without consideration of suitability, it may result in less productivity and climate risk. Thus, it is recommended to focus on apple production in highly suitable, moderately suitable, and marginal areas of the region, adopting climate-smart approaches like supplemental irrigation, fertilizer application, and the introduction of new apple varieties of low chill and heat française.