A Study on Regional Disparities and Shifting Trends in Transportation Carbon Emissions in China

In order to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in China’s transportation sector, this paper examines the regional data in transportation carbon emissions across China, investigates the shifting trends of the carbon emission centroid over time, and proposes a novel representation using fuzzy set theory and rough set theory for carbon emission prediction. This paper employs the ESDA model to analyze the regional distribution of carbon emissions in the transportation sector across 30 provinces in China for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Utilizing the economic centroid model and standard deviation ellipse, the trend of carbon emission centroid shifts in China’s transportation sector is examined, revealing that the carbon emission centroid for all four time points is located in Henan Province. Subsequently, focusing on Henan Province, ridge regression analysis is conducted to identify the driving factors influencing carbon emissions in the transportation sector from 2005 to 2020. Lastly, a combined approach integrating scenario analysis and the STIRPAT model is employed to forecast carbon emissions in the transportation sector of Henan Province for the period 2021–2035. The findings suggest that high-carbon-emission regions in China’s transportation sector gradually extend from the eastern coastal areas to the southwestern regions, with an overall trend of the carbon emission centroid shifting northward. The carbon emission centroid for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 is consistently located in Henan Province. Ridge regression analysis indicates that population size, transportation energy consumption intensity, energy structure, transportation economic share, and per capita GDP all have promoting effects on carbon emissions in Henan Province’s transportation sector. Based on the combined approach of scenario analysis and the STIRPAT model, it is predicted that the transportation sector in Henan Province may reach its carbon peak between 2027 and 2029. These conclusions facilitate the formulation of region-specific emission reduction policies and measures tailored to the transportation sector.