Estimating Forest Fire Damage in Russia in the 21st Century Based on MODIS Burn Intensity Analysis

In this paper, the features of forest fire damage in Russia in the 21st century have been analyzed. Methods for estimating forest fire damage and the area affected by forest fires based on burn intensity data have briefly been described. The main characteristics of a database of forest fires and postfire damage, which is compiled from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) observations for the period from 2001 to 2024, have been discussed. The main features of the dynamics of postfire forest damage observed in the 21st century have been presented and analyzed. In Russia, it has also been shown that during the analyzed period, there was a significant increase in fire fatalities (more than doubling). This increase is primarily due to fires occurring in coniferous–deciduous forests. It has also been noted that, since the beginning of the 21st century, the fraction of forests severely damaged by fires (class 5 ACC (average-weighted condition category)) has significantly increased. All this made it possible to conclude that there is a significant observed trend of increasing damage from forest fires in the Russia in the 21st century, despite the absence of such a trend for the area affected by fires. In the paper, the seasonal dynamics of forest damage from fires has also been presented and analyzed. In particular, it has been shown that more than 80% of the area of severe forest damage associated with fires occurs in the summer months, with approximately 50% of such areas occurring in July.