An Algorithm for Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Promising Areas for Introduction of Thermophilic Crops: a Case Study of Novgorod Oblast

The observed climate warming has highlighted the importance of introducing thermophilic, high-yielding crops in the Non-Chernozem Zone of Russia. However, not all areas of this zone have reached the required active temperature for growing these crops. Thus, the purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm that uses satellite imagery to identify areas with increased heat availability, which is the first step towards introduction of these crops in the Non-Chernozem Zone. It is known that the thermal regime of soils depends on meteorological factors, agrophysical properties of soils, insolation levels of different forms of terrain, and presence of endogenic heating. Therefore, it is important to identify the most thermally favorable agricultural lands for economically viable cultivation of thermophilic exotic plants. To address this issue, Novgorod oblast has been chosen as the focus of research, as the Novgorod Agricultural Research Institute has been conducting agroecological trials of thermophilic sorghum varieties since 2016. The results of this long-term research form the basis for creating forecast maps of potential sorghum crop yields and identifying promising areas for cultivation. To generate these maps, we used a large amount of digital data from daily satellite infrared-thermal images collected during warm seasons in Novgorod oblast over the past 20 years. The study provides a justification for the algorithm for mapping the sorghum yield forecast in Novgorod oblast. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of heat supply in agricultural lands in Novgorod oblast has been conducted. It is shown that an increase in heat supply to the lands is expected by 2030, which will lead to an increase in sorghum yields. It is concluded that the developed technology can also be applied to other thermophilic plants.