Wind Speed Prediction Based on AM-BiLSTM Improved by PSO-VMD for Forest Fire Spread

This study focuses on enhancing wind speed prediction for wildfire spread simulation by proposing an integrated forecasting approach. The original wind speed series is first processed via variational mode decomposition (VMD), with its parameters [K, α] optimized via particle swarm optimization (PSO). Every intrinsic mode function (IMF) resulting from this decomposition is predicted using a bidirectional long short-term memory model incorporating an attention mechanism (AM-BiLSTM), and the final wind series is reconstructed from these predictions. Model training and validation were conducted using data from controlled burning experiments in the Mao’er Mountain area of Heilongjiang Province, China. Predictive performance is evaluated through multiple statistical metrics, error distribution analysis, and Taylor diagrams. To assess practical utility, the predicted wind field is further applied in FARSITE to drive wildfire spread simulations. Results demonstrate that the PSO-VMD-AM-BiLSTM model provides reliable wind forecasts and contributes to improved fire spread prediction accuracy, indicating its potential for decision support in wildfire management. To achieve accurate forest fire spread prediction, we construct the MCNN model, which is based on early perception of understory wind fields using predicted wind speed data and adopts a multi-branch convolutional neural network architecture to extract fire spread features. FARSITE is employed to simulate forest fire spread in the Mao’er Mountain region, generating a dataset for model training and testing. After 50 training epochs, the loss value of the MCNN model converges, achieving optimal prediction performance when the combustion threshold is set to 0.7. Compared to models such as CNN, DCIGN, and DNN, MCNN shows improvements in evaluation metrics including precision, recall, Sørensen coefficient, and Kappa coefficient. To validate the model’s predictive performance in real fire scenarios, four field ignition experiments were conducted at the Liutiao Village test site: homogeneous fuel combustion, long fire line combustion, alternating fuel combustion, and multiple ignition source merging combustion. Comprehensive evaluation across the four experiments indicates that the model achieves precision, recall, Sørensen coefficient, and Kappa coefficient values of 0.940, 0.965, 0.953, and 0.940, respectively, with stable prediction errors below 6%. These results represent improvements over the comparative models DCIGN and DNN. The proposed MCNN model can adapt to forest fire spread prediction under different scenarios, offering a novel approach for accurate forest fire prediction and prevention.