Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of drought in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section): insights from TVDI analysis

Introduction Located in central China, the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) is a vital grain-producing region with extensive farmland. Its strategic central location also means its economic development is crucial for the stable growth of both Henan Province and the national economy. Nevertheless, persistent drought has long presented significant challenges to the region’s agriculture, ecology, and economic development. Methods Based on TVDI (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) data from 2003 to 2022, this study investigated historical drought dynamics through Theil–Sen Median and Mann–Kendall trend analyses. Future drought tendencies were assessed using R/S analysis. Spatiotemporal influencing factors were further examined using Geographic Detector. Results Research results indicated that most areas of the region were experiencing drought conditions. From 2003 to 2022, drought intensified in the northeastern counties of Yuanyang, Fengqiu, Changyuan, Puyang, Fanxian, and Taiqian within the Yellow River Basin (Henan section), while drought conditions eased in the southwestern counties of Lingbao, Lushi, Luoning, Shanzhou District, and Jiyuan. Future trends in drought variation indicated that the southwestern part of the region showed potential for improvement in drought conditions, while drought conditions in the western areas were likely to worsen. The primary factors influencing the spatiotemporal variation of drought in this region were evapotranspiration, temperature, and rainfall. Discussion This study aimed to provide an in-depth analysis of the drought situation in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section), offering a reference to assist stakeholders in implementing timely drought mitigation measures, thereby reducing the impact of drought on agricultural production and the ecological environment.