Marco SIG-AHP Multicriterio para la Evaluación del Riesgo de Incendios Forestales en el Norte de Argelia: Integración de Factores Ambientales y Antrópicos

Forest fires represent a significant and escalating environmental threat in Northern Algeria, impacting biodiversity, ecosystem services, regional climate stability, and socioeconomic systems. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of wildfires have increased due to prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, and intensified human activities. This study aims to model and assess wildfire risk by integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), thereby providing a robust spatial decision-support framework for wildfire management. Ten environmental and anthropogenic factors were evaluated: wind speed, temperature, proximity to rivers, solar radiation, proximity to buildings, precipitation, Land Cover/Land Use (LCLU), elevation, proximity to roads, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Each factor was assigned a weight using the AHP method to quantify its influence, and spatial overlay analysis in ArcGIS was applied to generate a comprehensive forest fire risk map. The study area was classified into three risk zones: low (34%), medium (46%), and high (20%), emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in vulnerable regions. Wind speed (0.244) and temperature (0.152) were identified as the most influential factors, while NDVI (0.037) and proximity to roads (0.054) had minimal impact. Despite its relatively low weight, NDVI remains ecologically significant due to its role in influencing vegetation density and fire propagation. The findings highlight the necessity for site-specific prevention strategies, enhanced vegetation management, and continuous monitoring. Furthermore, the study recommends extending the GIS–AHP framework to other regions of Algeria and integrating machine learning techniques to improve predictive accuracy and adaptive wildfire risk management.