Can the “Dual pilot” Innovation-Driven Policy Promote “Reduction in Quantity and Improvement in Quality” of Carbon Emissions in Administrative Boundaries?

The National Innovation Demonstration Zones and Innovative City Pilot Policies are a critical institutional framework designed to facilitate the transformation of growth drivers. Can these policies synergistically empower administrative boundary regions to achieve “emission reduction and quality improvement”? This study leverages data from 285 Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning 2006 to 2020. Using township-level administrative boundary areas as a scientific basis and employing a quasi-natural experiment approach with the “dual pilot” policy, we construct a staggered difference-in-differences model to systematically investigate the impact of innovation-driven policies on the scale and efficiency of carbon emissions. Our findings indicate that the “dual pilot” innovation-driven policy can effectively promote emission reduction and quality improvement in administrative boundary regions. The “dual pilot” policy not only directly drives effective emission reduction through a dual-drive mechanism but also influences carbon emissions in boundary regions via technological diffusion, structural optimization, and policy synergy effects. Further analysis reveals that the “dual pilot” policy is more effective for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing quality in boundary regions of non-resource-based and coastal cities. Additionally, cities that were designated as innovative cities before becoming national independent innovation demonstration zones exhibit a stronger policy synergy effect in their boundary regions.