Driver Risk Factors in High-Altitude Winter Traffic Accidents: A Multivariate Behavioral Analysis of Erzurum Crashes

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif">This study comprehensively investigates the impact ofdriver-related errors on the severity of traffic accidents in Erzurum Province,Turkey, a high-altitude region characterized by prolonged and harsh winterconditions. The province frequently experiences snowfall, icy road surfaces,low temperatures, and reduced visibility, which amplify the consequences ofrisky driving behaviors. Using an extensive dataset of 16,793 officiallyrecorded traffic accidents from 2014 to 2023, the study focuses on the roles ofalcohol test results, seat belt and helmet usage, and primary driver faults inshaping accident outcomes. Unlike previous research primarily centered onenvironmental and temporal factors, this work adopts a multivariate,behavior-focused approach to reveal the influence of human errors underhigh-risk winter conditions.<o:p></o:p></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif">A Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) was firstconducted with fatalities and injuries as joint dependent variables,demonstrating that alcohol consumption, seat belt compliance, and driver faultcategories significantly affect the combined pattern of accident severity (p&lt; 0.001). To further identify and differentiate driver risk profiles,Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA) was employed. The results show that unsafemaneuvers, right-of-way violations, and overspeeding are the most influentialfactors contributing to high-severity crashes, while helmet use is stronglyassociated with the low-severity cluster.<o:p></o:p></span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif">These findings highlight the critical role of driverbehavior in high-altitude winter traffic safety and underline the importance oftargeted law enforcement, driver education programs, and preventive safetyinterventions. The study suggests that future research should integratereal-time driver monitoring, traffic volume data, and advanced predictivemodeling techniques, such as machine learning and ensemble methods, to supportproactive accident prevention strategies and enhance safety outcomes insimilarly hazardous regions.<o:p></o:p></span>