Geopolitical Risk and Türkiye's Tourism Growth: Testing a Shifting Relationship

<b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-fareast-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">&nbsp;</span></b><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-fareast-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">This study analy<span style="color:red">s</span>es therelationship between tourism and economic growth in Türkiye, taking a novelapproach by considering the impact of geopolitical risk. Using monthly datafrom 1996 to 2022, we disaggregate tourism markets based on countries'geopolitical risk levels.&nbsp; By employing afuzzy clustering technique, we reveal how the tourism-growth nexus variesacross different geopolitical risk clusters. Furthermore, we utili<span style="color:red">s</span>e Fourier-Toda-Yamamoto Causality test to analy<span style="color:red">s</span>e the causal relationship across short, medium, andlong-term horizons. Our findings reveal a consistent tourism-led growth pattern<span style="color:red">in</span> all countries regardless of geopoliticalrisk, highlighting the significant role of tourism in the Turkish economy.However, the study uncovers crucial nuances within the tourism-growthrelationship, demonstrating a feedback effect in the short run and varyingcausal relationships across different time horizons. This study contributes tothe literature by explicitly incorporating geopolitical risk into the analysisof tourism-led growth, providing valuable insights for policy makers inTürkiye.</span></i>