Policy and governance simulation for Arctic marine routes

This paper introduces PoGo (Policy and Governance), a simulation framework designed to assess the operational impacts of maritime policies on shipping, particularly for navigation in sea ice. By integrating ship performance models, metocean conditions, local community factors, regulations like the Polar Code and Carbon Intensity Indicator, and employing a route optimization algorithm, PoGo enables the evaluation of policy decisions and their effects on rights-holders and ship operators. The main elements of PoGo are described and the framework of the code is outlined. A case study on a cargo transportation service to Iqaluit is used to exemplify some the tool’s features, focusing on vessel ice class, transportation season, fuel and crewing costs, carbon emissions, and voyage time. This application highlights how PoGo can be used as a strategic tool, identifying consequences of policy changes, navigation restrictions, and future regulation revisions. Effectively, the simulation framework can be used to assess the sensitivity of policy decisions in the context of Arctic shipping, and balance economic and other considerations.