SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF REDUCING AIR PARTICULATE MATTER (PM10) POLLUTION IN KOCAELI USING BENMAP-CE MODEL

Air pollution has long been a significant factor affecting both human and environmental health.With increasing human population and industrialization, various pollutants have been released into theatmosphere. Among these, particulate matter is one of the most critical pollutants and poses a seriousthreat to living organisms. In particular, it contributes to various health problems, such as respiratoryand cardiovascular diseases. Long-term exposure can lead to workforce loss and, in severe cases, evendeath. Each year, deaths related to air pollution also have a negative impact on national economies. Toaddress these challenges and minimize potential harm, researchers have developed various approachesand models. One such tool is the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition(BenMAP-CE), developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). BenMAP-CE enableshealth and economic risk assessments based on regional data. It utilizes air quality data, along withmortality, hospital admission, and economic metrics, to estimate improvements in quality of life andpotential economic benefits resulting from better air quality. In this study, air quality monitoring dataand WRF-Chem model simulations of particulate matter concentrations were used for the Kocaeliregion. While the Kocaeli region is one of Türkiye’s most industrialized and densely populated areas, itis also exposed to severe air pollution. Therefore, poor air quality can lead to serious health problemsand even death. Cause-specific mortality data related to cardiovascular, respiratory, and other diseaseswere incorporated, and the BenMAP-CE model was applied to assess potential improvements in qualityof life and associated economic gains under a scenario of a 50% reduction in particulate matterconcentrations. The results estimate that more than one hundred deaths from cardiovascular andrespiratory causes could be prevented, and the economic benefits could exceed one billion dollars. As aresult of the Kocaeli districts, Izmit, Gebze and Darica within the Kocaeli province demonstrated thehighest potential for benefit, whereas Dilovasi yielded relatively lower benefit, a more limited impactcompared to the other districts.