A Study on the Recent Earthquake Potential and Hazard in and around Muş Province of Türkiye

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;text-indent:35.4pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;letter-spacing:.2pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In the scope of this study, current earthquakepotential and hazard assessment in and around Muş province of Türkiye wasachieved by considering several seismotectonic parameters such as <i>b</i>-value of magnitude-frequencydistribution of earthquakes and Coulomb stress analysis. We used a rectangularregion limited by the co-ordinates 38.2°N-39.6°N in latitude and theco-ordinates 40.0°E-43.0°E in longitude. Earthquake database was compiled from </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Boğazici University,Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;letter-spacing:.2pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> and it is homogeneous for momentmagnitude, <i>Mw</i>. Earthquake catalog hasa time period of 90.13-years from November 12, 1934 to December 31, 2024, andthere exist 15,312 earthquakes with magnitudes </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">between </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1.0</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:Symbol;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol">£</span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Mw</span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:Symbol;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Symbol">£</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">6.9. This seismic zone has been subjected tostrong/large earthquakes after 2020. The last two earthquakes occurred in thestudy region in June 14, 2020 (<i>Mw</i>=5.8)and February 17, 2023 (<i>Mw</i>=5.0)clearly show the current earthquake hazard in this part of Türkiye. There existregional variations in <i>b</i>-valuebetween 0.55 and 1.36. The lowest <i>b</i>-values(&lt;0.8) were observed some areas including Yedisu, Kargapazarı, Elmalı,Karlıova, Lice-Dicle, Kulp and Kozluk segments, on the Muş, Varto and KavakbaşıFault zones, and also in and around Yenisu, Yayla, Nemrut, Akdağ and AkdoğanGölü faults. In addition, 14 local events with <i>Mw</i>≥4.8 since 2010 in the study region were used for the Coulombstress estimations. According to Coulomb stress distributions, some parts ofthe study region have positive stress lobes (&gt;0.01 in bars) and this partscover Yedisu, Kargapazarı, Elmalı, Karlıova, Lice-Dicle and Palu segments,Bingöl, the northwest part of Muş Fault zone and southwest of Varo Fault zone,and the area between Kazbel, Akdoğan Gölü and Haçlı Gölü faults. Theobservations on <i>b</i>-value and stressdistributions are quite related to seismic activity and faulting mechanisms inthe region, respectively. Seismic zones with low <i>b</i>-values and positive stress distributions are significant forseismic hazard evaluation and these regions may be interpreted as the mostlikely areas for the future earthquake occurrences. Hence, special attentionmust be given paid to these regions for the quantitative appraisal ofearthquake potential. As a remarkable fact, analyzing the earthquakecharacteristics with different seismotectonic variables will contribute toearthquake potential and hazard studies in the next future<span style="letter-spacing:.2pt">.&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span>