Migration Intentions of Creative Youth in a Shrinking City The Case of Erzurum

This study investigates the migration intentions of university students in Erzurum, a mid-sized city in eastern Türkiye that has been experiencing long-term population decline. Framed within the theoretical context of shrinking cities, the research focuses on students enrolled in architecture, design, and fine arts programs. These individuals represent the emerging creative class—key actors in shaping future urban transformation—and are often considered indicators of a city’s cultural and economic vitality. The data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 742 students at [Blinded for Review] University. The study employs a combination of factor analysis, logistic regression, and correlation techniques to identify the major determinants influencing students’ intentions to either stay in or leave the city upon graduation. The findings reveal that limited employment opportunities, low income expectations, and the inadequacy of cultural and recreational amenities significantly increase the likelihood of outmigration. Conversely, strong family ties, social cohesion, and a sense of personal safety emerge as factors that encourage students to remain in the city. Among these, economic concerns—especially unemployment and income insecurity—stand out as the most decisive motivators, while social and emotional factors serve as important moderators when a minimum level of economic security is present. This paper contributes to the growing literature on urban shrinkage in the Global South by offering insights from a demographic segment often underrepresented in migration research: creative youth. It emphasizes the need to address both push and pull factors in an integrated manner. Furthermore, the study recommends targeted smart shrinkage strategies to retain young talent, including strengthening the creative economy, improving urban quality of life, and fostering inclusive, youth-centered development policies.