A Dynamic Foraging Habitat Distribution Estimate for Green Turtles in the Great Barrier Reef

A detailed understanding of how protected species use their habitats can guide management interventions in areas of high human use. For marine turtles, different food availability and physical habitat characteristics can underpin turtle presence at anthropogenically modified compared to unmodified sites. We develop telemetry-based habitat models with boosted regression trees to identify the environmental characteristics underpinning foraging habitat suitability for green turtles in the Great Barrier Reef region. We fit models to green turtle Fastloc GPS tracks from both modified and unmodified inshore foraging sites and using pseudo-absences (simulated correlated random walks). We assess model performance by the ability to predict known foraging areas, true skill statistic, explanatory power (percent deviance explained) and predictive skill (AUC) of the models. We then predict potentially suitable foraging areas for green turtles in the Great Barrier Reef region using the model for unmodified habitats. Our model highlights shallow nearshore environments and midshelf reefs as important foraging areas for green turtles. These areas are likely affected by dynamic floods, development, and turbidity. In 2022, 46.6% of predicted suitable habitat fell within habitat protection zones, and 16.5% in Marine National Park Zones of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. A detailed foraging distribution of the species has not previously been compiled at this regional scale. Identifying biophysical drivers of habitat suitability can inform identification of possible foraging habitat in less data rich regions in Australia and overseas. Evaluating changes over time in habitat distribution provides insights into the degree to which broad-scale environmental changes and anthropogenic activities influence the condition and function of habitats, even within protected area boundaries.