What Models Do Not Say: Ecosystem Services Dynamics in Asinara National Park (Sardinia, It)

Understanding how land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) affect ecosystem services (ES) is essential for guiding sustainable management strategies in protected areas (PAs), particularly in small island contexts where ecological processes, historical land uses and socio-economic dynamics are tightly interwoven. This study explores the medium-term dynamics of ES supply using LULCCs as a spatial indicator on the island of Asinara (Italy). Spatially modelled results show that the transition from agricultural and semi-natural uses to uncultivated areas, driven by land abandonment and soft nature-restoration actions, has reshaped the balance between provisioning, regulating and cultural services, generating reflections on opportunities and land management challenges. These outcomes require careful contextualization to reflect underlying ecological processes and land capabilities, highlighting the need for governance frameworks oriented towards conservation-driven landscape management rather than passive rewilding, especially in landscapes long shaped by human activities. More generally, sustainability in PAs is not an automatic outcome of protection or abandonment, but a contingent, spatially differentiated and governed process, in which indicators and maps serve to guide decisions, not to certify their success.