A Transformer-based agent model of GEOS-Chem v14.2.2 for informative prediction of PM _2.5 and O ₃ levels to future emission scenarios: TGEOS v1.0

Abstract. Efficient and informative air quality modeling in future emission scenarios is vital for effective formulation of emission reduction policies. Traditional chemical transport models (CTMs) struggle with the computational demands required for timely predictions. While advanced emulator techniques greatly accelerate CTM simulating process, they fall short in providing comprehensive estimates of future air quality due to their limited model structure. Additionally, these emulators often have difficulty simultaneously accounting for varying emission variables and the effects of regional transport, which limits their applicability and undermines prediction accuracy. In this study, an informative future air quality prediction model “TGEOS v1.0” based on the Transformer framework is developed as an efficient agent model of GEOS-Chem v14.2.2. TGEOS is able to efficiently estimate key statistical indicators of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations under future emission scenarios and capture potential extreme pollution events, with approximately 2.51 s to execute one-year estimation. The model incorporates sectoral emissions of up to 26 distinct species as well as the impacts of regional emissions and meteorology on pollutant concentrations, enhancing its versatility and predictive accuracy. The spatial and probability distributions predicted by TGEOS are in good agreement with GEOS-Chem, with the correlation coefficients for PM2.5 and O3 exceed 0.98 in high-pollution months. Compared with other machine learning models, TGEOS based on Transformer framework showcases superior performance, underscoring the potential of the Transformer framework in air quality modeling.