Ensemble Machine Learning Approach for Traffic Congestion and Travel Time Prediction in Urban Bus Rapid Transit Systems: A Case Study of Trans Metro Bandung

Traffic congestion and travel time uncertainty remain major challenges to the operational efficiency of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in urban areas of developing countries. This study proposes an integrated solution for the Trans Metro Bandung (TMB) system by leveraging Internet of Things (IoT)–based GPS data and tree-based ensemble machine learning algorithms. Spatio-temporal data collected from on-board GPS modules are processed to predict traffic congestion levels and estimate travel time across route segments. The performance of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost models is evaluated in terms of prediction accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency, with particular consideration for deployment on resource-constrained hardware. Experiments conducted on 20,156 data samples show that the Decision Tree model achieves the highest congestion classification accuracy of 96.8%, while Random Forest outperforms other models in travel time regression, achieving an R2 value of 0.95 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.80 min. The trained models are successfully deployed on a Raspberry Pi 3B microcontroller for real-time inference, enabling fleet management and travel planning without reliance on cloud connectivity. The results demonstrate that cost-effective and interpretable machine learning solutions can deliver reliable performance in heterogeneous urban infrastructures while providing a replicable framework for medium-sized cities seeking to implement affordable smart transportation systems.